In Defense of Rural America

a weekly column published every Sunday by
Ron Ewart, President of the

For the week of:
Sunday, July 13, 2014

The "In Defense of Rural America" column archives are available HERE.

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“The Government, the Devil and the Cone of Uncertainty”
From * In Defense of Rural America *
By Ron Ewart, President
National Association of Rural Landowners
and nationally recognized author on freedom and property rights issues.
We are helping to spread freedom and liberty around the globe.
© Copyright Sunday, July 13, 2014 - All Rights Reserved

“As far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain; and as far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality.”

Albert Einstein

If you were watching the endless reports last week on hurricane Arthur as it moved up the East Coast of the United States, perhaps some of you noticed that there was an updated hurricane report every 6 hours. Maybe even some of you noticed that the track of the hurricane predictions on the weather maps gets wider and wider as it moves forward in time. In just 4 days the cone of uncertainty is over 500 miles wide, from a point four days earlier that was only a few miles wide. This is true for the predictions of all hurricanes and weather systems. It is also true for a whole bunch of other life experiences and natural events.

Now by the time you read this, the hurricane will have dissipated into the northern Atlantic Ocean after spilling its guts onto parts of New England and the Canadian Maritime Provinces, that's if their predictions were right. It will have passed into ancient hurricane history and the weathermen (or women) will move onto the next weather front, tornado, tropical storm, or a new hurricane spawning off the north coast of Africa, or in the Caribbean Ocean somewhere. Because you see ladies and gentlemen, the weather is a non-linear dynamic system and is infinitely variable. The fact is, climate changes, sometimes drastically. And that is the reason why it defies long-range predictions. There are just too many variables. But the government and the scientists won't tell you that.

So why is it, if we have to update the predictions of the path of a hurricane every 6 hours using computer models, how can those same computer models possibly predict the weather 1 week, one month, one year, one decade, or one century into the future? The fact is they can't, even if the scientists have the best computers in the world. There are too many variables in the system that defy modeling, such as volcano eruptions, cloud cover, massive forest fires, changing ocean currents and changes in the Sun's output of solar energy.

As an example, it was just recently reported in the "DAILY MAIL" that Antarctica sea ice is many times larger and on the increase, where climate computer models show the ice should be decreasing.

Which begs the question, why do we believe the government and the climate scientists when they tell us that the temperature and the oceans are going to rise, cities will be flooded, agriculture will dry up and people will either drown, starve, or die by the millions? Why? Because people are uneducated about the basics of science and logic and they believe what anyone in authority tells them. By being thus, government's power grows and the people assure their own enslavement.

Life on Earth offers many, what are called non-linear dynamic systems. Eco-systems, oceans, the weather, the stock market, commerce and trade, currency exchange, welfare and the poor and the behavior of people, are just a few examples. They are characterized by having many different variables that determine their instantaneous conditions. The instantaneous condition can be altered dramatically with small changes in one or more variables, (tweaking) thus invoking the ravages of the butterfly effect. [from Wikipedia] "The phrase refers to the idea that a butterfly's wings might create tiny changes in the atmosphere that ultimately cause a tornado to appear. The flapping wing represents a small change in the initial condition of the system, which causes a chain of events leading to large-scale phenomena. Had the butterfly not flapped its wings, the trajectory of the system might have been vastly different. Small variations of the initial condition of a non-linear dynamical system may produce large variations in the long term behavior of the system."

In 2005 we wrote an article about man-caused global warming that was published in the Seattle Times in December of that year as a guest editorial. It lays out a short summary of the changing earth over a long period of time (eons) and why predictions of twenty years, or even 100 years, are just plain scientific folly, if not a purposeful fraud. In the case of man-caused global warming, the fraud has been exposed but the government, environmentalists and climate scientists keep on pushing it for political reasons and a socialist, wealth re-distribution, United Nations agenda.

In any event, we have repeated some of the December 2005 article below entitled, "Global Warming, A Farce".

"To see anything clearly, you must have a sufficiently broad perspective, accompanied by hard data, repeatable long-term observations and verifiable facts. If you are standing and looking at the ground, your perspective and your field of view are quite limited. If, however, you are standing on the top of a mountain, your perspective broadens exponentially. And thus it is with the subject of global warming. Without a broader view, it is almost impossible to know whom or what to believe. So, a short history of the Earth is in order."

"The Earth has endured sunspots, reversing poles, shifting magnetic fields, drifting continents, asteroid and comet collisions, and ice ages in its 4.5 billion-year history. It has experienced the wondrous 165 million-year dinosaur experiment. Six hundred million years ago, the "Cambrian explosion" occurred, when life almost magically erupted, emerged and evolved at a pace never before seen." "Over its lifetime, the Earth spun, tilted, heaved, shifted, rose and shrunk, drastically changed, expelled gases and molten lava, grew hot and then cold. Continents drifted first toward each other (Pangea) and then away. Polar ice caps and glaciers melted and sea levels rose and then lowered."

"About 12,000 years ago, one-third of the Earth's surface was covered in a layer of ice more than one mile thick. During that ice age, which lasted longer than civilized man has lived on Earth, there were no animals, plants, insects or habitat that could survive in this harsh environment. But life on Earth still survived in other places less hostile. The ultimate thaw and the rushing torrent carved deep gouges and massive channels in the Earth's surface. It created riverbeds and dry falls and lakes and inland seas and other features in the Earth's crust, not there before. Now that was global warming on a grand scale."

"Whole forests grew and then died out. Mountains rose out of the bowels of the Earth, pushed up by continents in collision and then flattened back into the crust. Ancient sea-beds rose up and became the land. Rivers changed direction. Monster lakes were formed. Giant meteors struck the Earth at unimaginable speeds, carving massive holes in the crust and sending continent-size clouds of sunlight-dimming dust into the atmosphere. The atmosphere became opaque and cut off the life-giving sunlight, rendering lifeless enormous parts of the planet. Millions of species of plants and animals evolved, survived, reproduced and then died out, to be replaced by entirely different species of plants and animals."

"However, major changes seldom occurred in cataclysmic events. They almost always took place agonizingly slowly, over eons of time, through the tedious, grinding, random, chaotic, disorganized process of natural evolution. The variables were almost infinite and still are."

"And today, those same agonizingly slow processes are at work. We are an integral part of those processes but we will have little or no effect on any final outcome. We will but only tickle the grander elements such as the Sun, the Moon and the Earth itself, none of which is predictable, much less measurable to the degree necessary for accurate predictions."

"A few spewing volcanoes or an episode of sunspots can totally invalidate any computer models. Just look at weather predictions. Any prediction is good for about two hours and that is why the environmentalists' models were predicting an ice age 20 years ago and now they are predicting global warming. It's an insult to our intelligence and to true science."

"The universe, our solar system and even our Earth are violent, dangerous places to humans and other life forms and always have been. Just ask the dinosaurs. So far, we have just been lucky. A close-by (in galactic terms) supernova in the spiral arm of the Milky Way, in which our solar system resides, could flood the sun and planets with massive amounts of deadly radiation and render Earth lifeless and barren. If the Sun changed its energy output by a significant fraction, all life on Earth could cease. An errant asteroid or comet could cross the Earth's orbit and the resulting collision could dramatically change the pattern of life, or terminate it altogether."

"Environmentalists cry "wolf" on very little data and way-too-short time periods to come up with meaningful predictions, as they have with man-caused global warming. Unfortunately, environmentalism has become a cult of mindless followers with a distorted vision of how humans and the Earth should relate to each other. Earth gets the highest priorities — over people — in spite of true science. In reality, humans are but a part of the evolutionary and natural processes of Earth and those processes, not environmentalists or governments, will determine the final outcome. This is why the environmentalist's man-caused global warming theory is an unmitigated farce."

Knowing all this, how can we believe the government and climate scientists when they tell us that the "climate" sky is falling? To spend trillions of American taxpayer dollars on attempts to limit carbon dioxide in the atmosphere when other countries are doing nothing, would be one of the greatest frauds ever perpetrated on the American people by their government in America's history. But don't take our word for it. That is exactly what Apollo Astronaut Walter Cunningham says in his recent article entitled: "Climate Alarmism - Biggest Fraud In The Field of Science."

The hard facts of reality are, we live in a world full of uncertainties, and weather, man-caused or otherwise, is one of those huge uncertainties. No matter how good our science is, we simply cannot accurately predict weather over long periods of time. Nor can the scientists or the government predict to any degree of accuracy, stock market movements, the economy, the flow of money, people's behavior, ocean currents, or any other non-linear dynamic system. They aren't just sort of wrong, they are wrong by several orders of magnitude. Ask a hundred economists on what is going to happen to the economy in the next 10 or twenty years and you will get a hundred different answers, all backed up with unimpeachable statistics and mathematics. Most of them will be wrong.

Government can't control these things, the devil or evil men seem to be in control and the cone of uncertainty gets wider and wider as each day passes. If it were otherwise, the City of Las Vegas would be a ghost town.

There are so many more government actions that negligently mess with non-linear dynamic systems that have unintended if not drastic consequences. We do not have space to name them all. Just about everything that government touches gets screwed up one way or another by politics because of their purposeful ignorance of non-linear dynamic systems and the butterfly effect. Suffice it to say, government is leading us down the path to Hell and the pace is accelerating. The sad thing is, WE THE PEOPLE are letting them do it and by so doing we are letting the devil win. One thing is not uncertain though. Liberty hangs in the balance, depending on what the people do to or with their government.

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Ron Ewart, a nationally known author and speaker on freedom and property issues and author of his weekly column, "In Defense of Rural America", is the President of the National Association of Rural Landowners, (NARLO) a non-profit corporation headquartered in Washington State and dedicated to restoring, maintaining and defending property rights for urban and rural landowners. Mr. Ewart is now engaged in a plan to expose the Internal Revenue Service with his website "Attack Watch Spies". He can be reached by e-mail for comment at or by 'phone at 1 800 682-7848.

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